Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-30 184.450239 224.227494 273.680347 340.861539 431.647675 5.529919e+02 7.327328e+02
2025-04-06 140.730367 187.000773 252.175530 354.721930 520.340461 7.945098e+02 1.327187e+03
2025-04-13 112.422204 157.963704 227.496657 348.462819 571.092447 1.008287e+03 2.092063e+03
2025-04-20 101.194018 149.522806 228.999553 381.327320 701.708583 1.461673e+03 4.016750e+03
2025-04-27 92.090991 141.744542 228.580266 409.526105 839.413183 2.069049e+03 7.931611e+03
2025-05-04 84.145842 133.952035 225.667540 431.188864 977.029343 2.856919e+03 1.635728e+04
2025-05-11 76.956416 125.970197 220.224068 445.154127 1106.090728 3.837976e+03 3.584796e+04
2025-05-18 70.191767 117.522952 211.836582 449.164688 1211.254130 4.956226e+03 8.362874e+04
2025-05-25 63.624122 108.398255 200.121431 440.872381 1272.597638 6.035341e+03 2.014549e+05
2025-06-01 57.730555 99.758403 187.829596 427.260082 1307.979580 7.108155e+03 5.495159e+05
2025-06-08 52.653099 92.095950 176.385238 412.704066 1332.473173 8.254842e+03 2.032157e+06
2025-06-15 51.802594 92.903008 184.387268 458.235883 1665.761722 1.424864e+04 NaN
2025-06-22 48.641015 88.630849 180.004569 465.572508 1837.898113 2.026953e+04 NaN
2025-06-29 46.413179 86.092121 179.481468 486.251828 2121.283626 3.317372e+04 NaN
2025-07-06 43.138697 80.849608 171.157143 476.724748 2212.767587 4.419587e+04 NaN
2025-07-13 42.479890 81.371326 178.005573 526.749621 2818.106433 1.099131e+05 NaN
2025-07-20 41.491013 80.995703 182.382905 570.176827 3499.215900 3.236329e+05 NaN
2025-07-27 40.201896 79.742596 184.061072 603.841545 4210.919275 1.237670e+06 NaN
2025-08-03 38.665408 77.705708 183.080959 625.680029 4891.176987 7.732796e+06 NaN
2025-08-10 36.875087 74.846254 179.134555 631.971026 5421.570125 1.508275e+08 NaN
2025-08-17 34.812156 71.103858 171.888386 618.973149 5649.610455 NaN NaN
2025-08-24 32.755014 67.196641 163.589386 597.716831 5706.448701 NaN NaN
2025-08-31 30.847827 63.512274 155.516552 575.099006 5702.356046 NaN NaN